What We Heard Then:
On May 12, the White House announced that China would remove retaliatory tariffs imposed since April 4 and suspend or eliminate various non-tariff countermeasures. This was positioned as a diplomatic breakthrough—one that seemingly de-escalated tensions and signaled renewed commitment to stabilizing trade relationships.
But for consumers and brands, the psychological damage was already underway.
Our data collected May 9–11—just before the announcement—revealed a public already reacting as if the worst had arrived:
- 50% were “very” or “extremely” concerned about rising costs due to tariffs
- 44% were already spending less or switching to lower-cost brands
- 51% of Gen Z was preemptively cutting discretionary purchases
What We’re Watching Now:
In light of recent announcements, the critical question is:
Will consumer sentiment follow policy shifts—or has cautious spending become hardwired?
Upcoming indicators will help us gauge whether:
- Value-seeking becomes a default mindset rather than a temporary behavior
- Brand trust hinges more on price transparency and simplicity than deep discounting
- Retailers can pivot from reactive discounting to more strategic value framing
Why it matters:
Don’t wait for behavior to “return to normal.” What we’re seeing is likely the new baseline. Messaging should meet consumers where they are: cautious, deliberate, and increasingly pragmatic. Focus on value without compromise, clear benefit framing, and smart reassurance in a noisy economic landscape.
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